Near the end of every year, financial publications publish their picks for the coming year. This year is no different.
Kiplinger and U.S. News have already published articles detailing stock picks for 2019. I anticipate other publications, such as Money, Forbes, and others, will publish their picks in the coming weeks. It’s light reading, and certainly generates ideas for investors at the end of the year as they are assessing their 2018 performance and seeing if they can do better in 2019.
But before you jump into reading the 2019 picks, you should know how stock picks for 2018 have performed. Most people quickly forget the picks shortly after they close the webpage or magazine. However, a pick by a star manager might convince some investors to buy. The stock might sit in their portfolios for a few months or years, only to be replaced by the latest hot stock pick.
Kiplinger 2019 Stock Picks
Kiplinger columnist Jim Glassman published his top 10 stocks picks for 2019:
| Stock | Ticker |
| Alibaba | BABA |
| Amazon | AMZN |
| Computer Progs & Sys | CPSI |
| Coupa Software | COUP |
| Home Depot | HD |
| IHS Markit | INFO |
| Jones Lang LaSalle | JLL |
| New York Times | NYT |
| Starbucks | SBUX |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB |
U.S. News Stock Picks
U.S. News and World Report staff writer John Divine gave his ten 2019 stock picks in this article:
| Stock | Ticker |
| Starbucks | SBUX |
| NXP Semiconductors | NXPI |
| FB | |
| Stitch Fix | SFIX |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ |
| Berkshire Hathaway | BRK.B |
| Centene | CNC |
| Apple | AAPL |
| Sprouts Farmers Market | SFM |
| DowDuPont | DWDP |
Tracking The 2019 Picks
We’ll track how well these 2019 stock picks do. My guess is that some will do better, some will do worse, but since they have enough stock picks, you’ll end up with a market-matching performance, which of course, can also be achieved with an index fund portfolio.
How did the 2018 Picks Do?
But before we turn the page on 2018, let’s look at how last year’s picks of Kiplinger, Fortune, and Forbes performed, using data from Morningstar and their Portfolio Tracker tool (returns reported as of November 30, 2018).
Kiplinger
| Stock | Ticker |
2018 YTD Return
|
| Applied Materials | AMAT | -25.70% |
| Berkshire Hathaway | BRKB | 10.10% |
| Charles Schwab | SCHW | -11.89% |
| Citigroup | C | -10.86% |
| Cubic | CUB | 4.26% |
| Delphi Automotive | DLPH | -66.13% |
| DXC Technology | DXC | -23.80% |
| FB | -20.32% | |
| Hubspot | HUBS | 57.27% |
| Intuitive Surgical | ISRG | 45.47% |
| Kornit Digital | KRNT | 42.54% |
| Lululemon Athletica | LULU | 68.66% |
| McDonald’s | MCD | 11.28% |
| Microsoft | MSFT | 31.11% |
| Polaris Industries | PII | -19.83% |
| The Goldfield Corp | GV | -52.65% |
| United Parcel Service | UPS | -0.18% |
| United Healthcare | UNH | 29.19% |
| Average Return | 3.81% | |
| S&P 500 Return | 5.11% |
Kiplinger compiled 18 stock picks from their columnists Jim Glassman and Tom Petruno for 2018. Unfortunately, the average return of their stock picks slightly underperformed the S&P 500. They had some great picks like Lululemon and Hubspot, but they also had two stock picks that fell by more than 50% (Delphi and Goldfield).
Fortune
| Stock | Ticker |
2018 YTD Return
|
| AAC Technologies | AACAY | -58.97% |
| Alibaba | BABA | -6.71% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals | ALNY | -36.12% |
| Alphabet | GOOGL | 5.34% |
| Amazon | AMZN | 44.52% |
| Applied Materials | AMAT | -25.70% |
| Boeing | BA | 19.90% |
| Priceline | PCLN | 8.87% |
| Catcher Technology | CHERF | -15.70% |
| Cisco | CSCO | 27.47% |
| FB | -20.32% | |
| Fanuc | FANUY | -28.04% |
| Fiserv | FISV | 20.69% |
| Fortive | FTV | 5.53% |
| Honeywell | HON | 0.93% |
| Infineon | IFNNY | -21.16% |
| Intercontinental Exchange | ICE | 16.84% |
| Intuitive Surgical | ISRG | 45.47% |
| Mastercard | MA | 33.50% |
| McDonalds | MCD | 11.28% |
| Microsoft | MSFT | 31.11% |
| New Oriental Education | EDU | -39.19% |
| Nviidia | NVDA | -15.22% |
| Paypal | PYPL | 16.56% |
| Roper Technologies | ROP | 15.54% |
| Sage Therapeutics | SAGE | -30.00% |
| Stanley Black & Decker | SWK | -21.37% |
| Tencent | TCEHY | -22.59% |
| UnitedHealth Group | UNH | 29.19% |
| Wirecard | WCAGY | 35.27% |
| Yum Brands | YUM | 14.77% |
| Average Return | 1.34% | |
| S&P 500 Return | 5.11% |
Fortune has a splashy issue every December for their annual stock picks. For 2018, they had 31 “all-tech” picks divided over six different themes (large tech, bitcoin alternatives, robotics/automation, fintech, e-commerce, emerging markets, and healthcare), but with a common theme, technology (broadly defined).
Unfortunately, their average pick underperformed the S&P 500 by over 3%. When you make 31 stock picks, you are bound to have some winners (Amazon, Intuitive Surgical) and some losers (AAC Technologies, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals).
Forbes
| Stock | Ticker |
2018 YTD Return
|
| Alibaba | BABA | -6.71% |
| Ashford Hospitality | AHT | -21.10% |
| Campbell Soup | CPB | -15.61% |
| Compass Minerals | CMP | -26.67% |
| J.M. Smucker | SJM | -13.26% |
| Mitel Networks | MITL | 35.48% |
| Navient | NAVI | -10.06% |
| SandRidge Energy | SD | -53.49% |
| Shire plc | SHPG | 13.87% |
| Siemens AG | SIEGY | -12.90% |
| Steelcase | SCS | 8.36% |
| Sucampo Pharmaceuticals | SCMP | N/A |
| Average Return | -9.28% | |
| S&P 500 Return | 5.11% |
For 2018, Forbes compiled twelve stock picks from fund managers around the country. One pick, Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, was acquired before the end of 2017, so I didn’t include them in the stock picks. Unfortunately, the remaining 11 stocks had an average return of -9.28%. Only 3 of the 11 picks have positive YTD returns.
Conclusion
You’ll probably read a few articles over the next few weeks highlighting the stock picks of various investment managers for 2019. If the performance of 2018’s stock picks are any indication, I would use these picks for entertainment purposes only.
What do you think? Do you want to make a stock prediction for 2019 that we can keep track of? How much value do you place in these annual stock picks?
[socialpoll id=”2529296″]
You’ve highlighted a major problem with today’s journalism, the lack of follow-up of an exciting story.
Kiplinger, Forbes and Fortune seem to have amnesia when it comes to 2018’s picks. Where is their own story on their own performance? They should be the one’s writing follow-up articles, i.e., “How did we do on last year’s stock picks?” just like you did. Such a story should always preceed the picks for the following year. But I haven’t seen such an article!
I recall an old Wall Street Journal article that demonstrated that a monkey throwing darts at a list of stocks on the wall did better than most (if not all) money managers! Does anyone remember that reference?
I do remember that reference – not that it was specifically a monkey, but that throwing darts at a list of stocks did as well or better than most money managers. I never forgot it, either.
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Ouch. I guess this is why passive index fund investing seems to win out. By investing in companies at the top you are likely to have less loss.
Wow, I guess the expert stock pickers didn’t do so hot in 2018. Especially Fortune. Under-performing the S&P 500 by a lot. It’s interesting to follow these stocks one year out. I wonder how they will perform compared to the S&P 500 in a longer horizon… like 5-10 years out.
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Thank you.
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