Predicting The Future: The Wisdom Of Betting Markets

Updated on July 28th, 2018
37

What’s the stock market going to do in the next year?

This question is asked by millions of investors, both professional and amateur, every day.

Many professional investors spend their entire lives, and get paid a lot of money, to analyze everything from accounting statements to Donald Trump’s tweets, trying to predict the future direction of the stock market.

In a way, stock exchanges are giant betting markets. The current price of the S&P 500 or Apple stock is determined by the consensus of millions of investors. Using sports and political betting markets as analogies, it becomes clear how difficult it is to outsmart the stock market.

Sports Betting

I don’t gamble on sports, but I love to monitor the betting lines of the sporting events I watch.

For example, I want to know who Las Vegas thinks is the favorite in the France-Croatia World Cup final, and precisely what is the chance that France will win. Pinnacle Sports, one of the leading online sportsbooks, thinks France has a 67% chance of raising the World Cup in 2018.

In the fall, ESPN spends hours on Sportscenter having their experts make predictions on NFL and college football games. Some take their jobs more seriously than others:

While Lee Corso and his friends are good for a few laughs when they make their predictions, if you really want to know the chance Ohio State is going to beat Michigan, all you need to do is go straight to one source: the point spread.

In a single number, sports fans can figure out the exact probability that their team will win. For better or for worse, millions of dollars are wagered on college and NFL games, so the accuracy of the point spread or money line is very good.

Bookmakers in Las Vegas are skilled at handicapping games, but when they make the occasional mistake, professional gamblers (“sharps”) will push the betting towards the correct odds.

All public (and perhaps even some private/insider) information gets built into the betting line, such that it becomes difficult (if not impossible) to consistently beat the bookmakers in the long run.

Predicting Political Elections

To many political junkies, elections are like sports. One candidate is pitted against another, and election day is game day.

Elections have become like horse races, with a coterie of prognosticators (both partisan and non-partisan) attempting to predict the outcomes of political elections, and political fans from both parties rooting their team on as the polls swing up and down in the weeks and months before an election.

If you want to know the chance that your political party will win an election, you could listen to your favorite talk show host on the radio. You could listen to the pundits on Fox News if you’re a Republican or MSNBC if you’re a Democrat. They’ll be sure to spin the results of the most recent debate or opinion poll to argue for your political team.

Non-partisan prognosticators try to take a more objective view of the data. My favorites are the Cook Political Report and Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.

Don’t Trust The Polls

However, even polls can be biased. For example, pollsters have to make many assumptions about the political makeup (Republican vs. Democrat vs. independent) in the likely voter population. When pollsters get this distribution wrong (intentionally or unintentionally), it skews the poll results, even beyond the stated margin for error.

Political Betting Markets

When I want to know the chance that the Democrats will take the House or the Republicans retain control of the Senate in 2018, I go to the political betting markets. Traditional sportsbooks such as Betfair offer odds on political bets, and I also like PredictIt to track political odds. For example, PredictIt believes that there is currently a 63% chance that the Democrats will take the House and a 76% chance the Republicans will retain control of the Senate in 2018.

In 2016, political betting markets gave Donald Trump a much higher chance of winning the election than political prognosticators, who almost uniformly predicted that Hilary Clinton would win the election.

Predicting The Future of The Stock Market

Much like the betting markets on sporting events or political elections, the stock market price you see on your stocks app or Fidelity screen is the aggregation of all publicly available information. It is the compilation of thousands, if not millions, of hours of work by hundreds of thousands of investors (professional and amateur).

CNBC and Bloomberg fill their hours bringing in a revolving door of investment professionals who make their predictions about where the stock market is headed and which stocks are going to outperform the market.

At the end of each year, most financial publications will poll a couple of investment “experts” who will make their predictions for the top stocks in the next year. Unfortunately, the predictions usually don’t outperform the stock market.

I find it unlikely that a regular investor who does a few hours of homework a week would be able to beat the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market participants.

Conclusion

I listen to sports talk radio and read political news websites just like many of you. However, when it comes to predictions, these outlets are merely for entertainment value and I take little stock in their predictions. Betting markets, while admittedly imperfect, is the best predictor of future events, including what will happen in the stock market. Use the wisdom of the stock market to your advantage by investing in a low-cost diversified index fund portfolio, rather than trying to outsmart the invisible hand.

What do you think? Do you ever look at betting lines or political prediction markets?

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  27. I am Rachel Wilmott from Bakersfield, CA, United States. I need to share this here so you won’t lose your money cheaply to scam brokers. I invested about $509,278.10 on a binary option platform, then I decided to withdraw after several weeks. The withdrawal wasn’t successful, so I tried to contact the platform via email and phone number. I didn’t get a response from them when everything started looking weird. Some weeks later I got a letter from them insisting I should invest more money if I want to withdraw my money which I rejected and I never heard from them again. That was when I knew I had been scammed. I was really devastated at that moment and felt so bad that my hard earned money was gone. After some months I came across a lot of testimonies on the web how Rustik Cyber Hack Service had helped many people recover their stolen scammed funds or duped money on bitcoin or any other form of digital currency. I contacted them and they promised to help me get my money back and asked me for some info about the scammer which I provided. The result was amazing. I recovered all my stolen money in 73hours. I was so happy as I never believed I could get my money back. Thanks Rustik Cyber Hack Service and you restore my happiness as I could see my funds in my wallet. They are capable of recovering any crypto coins Bitcoin, Usdt ,Eth, Dogecoin, bank transfer scammed funds with their guidelines and skills. Website: rustikcyberhackservice.com Telegram: http://t.me/rustikcyberhackservice E mail: rustikcyberhacksservice@gmail.com

  28. Hello everyone am Victoria Jones, am here to share a great testimony on how Dr Wealth transformed my life financially, i still finds it difficult to believe that i now worth millions of dollars, i have been playing lottery game for so long and i have never win any reasonable amount of money, i was doing some research online about lottery game and i came across a testimony of a woman who won a very huge amount of money on lottery game through the help of Dr Wealth who predicted a winning game for her to play, and surprisingly she won a huge amount of money 19.5million dollars, so i also contacted Dr Wealth and asked him for help he told me what i needed to do which i did and on the second day after he had cast the spell for me he gave me some sure numbers to play so i went to play the numbers so on Tuesday the result came out and i went to check there i got the shock of my life, i saw my names amongst the winners i won an amount i have never dreamed of in my life, my mouth was open and i didn’t know what to say that was how my life changed financially i just want the world to know that there is a great spell caster called Dr Wealth if you have been playing lottery game and you have never won i will advice you to contact Dr Wealth for help and i promise you your story will change, you can email him at drwealthmag@gmail. com you can also WhatsApp him on +12184533734

  29. HOW I FINALLY RECOVERED MY LOST CRYPTO: I lost all my crypto to a fake investment scam to someone I met online. I started searching for help legally to recover my funds, and I came across a lot of Testimonies about HACKER STEVE. I contacted him, providing the necessary information and it took him and his team of experts about 36 hours to locate and help recover my stolen funds. I am so relieved and the best part was, the scammer was located and arrested by local authorities in his region. I hope this helps as many out there who are victims. I strongly recommend Steve professional services for assistance with swift and efficient recovery (Crypto, Credit card, Forex, NFT, etc) on Gmail: Hackersteve911@gmail.com | https://hackersteve.great-site.net/

  30. DR ISIKOLO cast a lottery spell for me and i won $8.500.000 . Read my review and contact him now for your own lottery winning numbers. It is a very hard situation when playing the lottery and never won, or keep winning low fund not up to 500 bucks, i have been a victim of such a tough life, the biggest fund i have ever won was 350 buck, and i have been playing the lottery for almost 8 years now, things suddenly change the moment i came across a secret online, a testimony of a voodoo doctor who help people in any type of lottery numbers, i was not easily convinced, but i decided to take try, now i am a proud lottery winner with the help of DR ISIKOLO, i won $8.500.000 and i am making this known to every one of you who have been trying all day to win the lottery, believe me this is the only way to win the lottery, this is the real secret we all have been searching for, you can contact Dr Isikolo on his webpage: https://isikolo-temple.com or WhatsApp him on +234-8133261196

  31. BE SMART AND BECOME RICH IN LESS THAN 3DAYS….It all depends on how fast 
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  33. Winning the lottery was part of my dreams, I tried so hard to win big but all to no avail, until I came across Dr Lucas online who made my dreams come through and made me win 10 million dollars. I was a logistics manager who lives in Lancaster, S.C. and works about an hour’s drive away, in Charlotte, N.C., I stopped at a store to buy a scratch-off lottery ticket during my lunch break, because Dr Lucas gave me all the assurance that the numbers are not going to fail after I did all he asked me to do. Dr lucas is a powerful Dr that is on a mission to eradicate poverty from people’s lives and i have confirmed that by winning $10 million with the numbers he provided for me, it is my promise to tell the world about my experience with Dr Lucas and that’s what I’m doing now, you can win the lottery fast with the help of Dr Lucas he is tested and trusted Email: Drlucasspelltemple@gmail.com or WhatsApp +234 904 794 3567 he will help you.

  34. Hello Everyone I honestly want to start by saying a massive thank you to SWIFT ASSETS RECOVERY FIRM, all in all this team have been pivotal in helping me get back on my feet again so I feel like I owe them a great deal of appreciation. If things went well, I promised myself I would come back here to share my own personal review when I first read about their services from previous friends online, well it’s safe to say the team exceeded my expectations with the results they achieved just within the 48 hours period of recovery much to my biggest surprise. The fact is, this team have got the much required versatile knowledge and experience to accurately maneuver the crypto space and make the impossible happen and that was exactly what I needed in my then moment of desperation, and it surely influenced my decision to go with them. After what happened with the telegram platform that deceived me, I just couldn’t afford to fall into the wrongs hands again so for me it was all about results and SWIFT ASSETS RECOVERY FIRM came highly recommended, so I took their contact details which were attached to the reviews which were Email address : SWIFTRECOVERYSERVICE006 @ G M AIL . C OM and WHATSAPP via +1 786 684 0501 and I messaged the team thankfully they responded back, I reached out to them on a Sunday afternoon and received notification the following Tuesday that my funds had been successfully retracted into my wallet, which I quickly checked and confirmed it. If you find yourself in a similar situation, you can contact them directly using any of their contact information above.

  35. I came in hand with greatness today, after mysteriously losing control of my Binance wallet and my trading account to LCGCOIN, I did everything they asked me but truth be told, this LCGCOIN crypto trading platform is just a bunch of rippers and clowns who prey on us due to our lack of exposure about cryptocurrency and how to properly earn from it. I saw no end to their demands for them to allow me access to my Binance wallet and trading account with them as well. I hired a private detective in my city, Oklahoma and he confirmed to me they were crooks but he couldn’t do much so he introduced me to Cyber Genie Hack Pro Crypto Wealth Recovery Services. I consulted them and filed a case on their website ( ht tp (://)   cybergeniehackpro (.) xy z/  ), and they swiftly got into work. I am truly impressed with the outcome of their recovery services. Having back access to my money was all I wanted. Every dollar I ever deposited into my LCGCOIN trading account was recovered. Everything is in order and my security is tight to avoid further cyber attacks. Grateful to everyone that made the recovery a success at Cyber-Genie-Hack-Pro. File a case with Cyber Genie if you are a victim of Binary and Cryptocurrency trading fraud. TELEGRAM:  @CYBERGENIEHACKPRO
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