The Warren Buffett Bet: S&P 500 versus Hedge Funds

Updated on August 10th, 2017
65

In 2007, Warren Buffett made a $1,000,000 bet with the hedge fund manager Protege Partners that the S&P 500 would perform better than a hand-picked selection of hedge funds. This bet became emblematic of the battle between passive and active management.

It is now 2017, and the bet is almost over. Over the past 10 years, we have seen all types of markets, from the bear market of 2008-2009 to the long bull market over the past 7 years. Let’s see who is winning, and how the results apply to us ordinary investors.

Terms Of The Bet

This was the original bet, as posted on the Long Bets website:

Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.

Protege Partners was permitted to select five hedge funds to compete against the S&P 500. But these weren’t just hedge funds, they were fund-of-funds. So the S&P 500 was competing against a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, or a fund-of-fund-of-funds. This fund-of-fund-of-funds actually contained over 100 individual hedge funds.

The identities of the individual hedge funds or fund-of-funds are not publicly known, but Warren Buffett has been able to view the returns of the hedge funds and can vouch for the accuracy of their reported results.

Results Of The Bet: 2008-2016

In Warren Buffett’s 2017 annual letter to shareholders, he updated readers to the current status of the bet, and the S&P 500 is handily beating the hedge funds. The S&P 500 has returned 7.1% annually from 2008-2016, while the hedge funds have only returned 2.2%.

But before Mr. Buffett gloats too much, it should be noted that Berkshire Hathaway, his holding company, has only returned 6.2% annually from 2008-2016. Even the Oracle of Omaha has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past 9 years.

Why Index Funds Won

Lower Fees

The most obvious reason for the S&P 500 index fund’s outperformance is its lower fees. Hedge funds typically charge 2% of assets under management and 20% of profits. This is even higher than the typical 1% charged by traditional mutual funds. For this particular bet, fund-of-funds are selected, which charge an extra layer of fees. This is like your financial advisor charging 1% of assets under management for the opportunity to select mutual funds that charge another 1-2% of assets.

This difference is incredibly hard to overcome, even for the most skilled of investors. Warren Buffett knew this, and it explains why he was so confident in his belief that the S&P 500 could outperform the hedge funds.

What is incredible is that the S&P 500 didn’t even do that great over this time period. Of the 8 major asset classes tracked by Novel Investor, the S&P 500 was #4 of 8:

Asset ClassAnnualized Returns 2008-2016
Small Cap Stocks8.1%
High-Yield Bonds7.9%
REIT7.7%
Large Cap Stocks7.1%
High-Grade Bonds4.1%
Cash0.3%
International Stocks0.1%
Emerging Markets-1.3%

The hedge funds could have picked a portfolio of small caps, high-yield bonds, or REITs and beaten the S&P 500, before fees. Unfortunately, after they take their cut of fees, a hedge fund consisting of any single individual asset class could not have beaten the S&P 500 index fund. No one can argue that the S&P 500 did exceptionally well compared to its peers during this period. As Buffett noted in his 2017 annual letter, a return of 7.1% over a 9-year period would be considered average stock market returns for most investors.

Hedge Funds Chased Absolute Over Relative Returns

Hedge funds typically state in their prospectuses that they are chasing absolute, not relative returns. Their goal is to perform well in up, down, or sideways markets. Their goal is not to necessarily beat the S&P 500 or any other index. As Warren Buffett noted in his 2017 annual letter to shareholders, the index fund would perform well if economic conditions lead to a rising market, while the hedge funds would do well in a declining market because they often take short positions as well as long positions.

Indeed, up until 2011, the hedge funds were actually beating the S&P 500. It wasn’t until the market continued to rise from 2012-2016 that the S&P 500 really began to shine against the hedge funds. There has been a steady drumbeat of predictions over the past 5 years that the market has made a top and is overvalued. Hedge funds were probably betting on a decline which never came.

Luck

In any sort of bet, there is an element of luck involved. If the hedge funds got lucky, they could have beaten the S&P 500. I would estimate that the hedge funds probably would have beaten the S&P 500 approximately 15-20% of the time. If the hedge funds were strictly interested in maximizing their chance of winning the bet, they would have went to a casino and put all of their money on black, and if they won, put the rest of the money in the S&P 500. This would have given them a 50/50 chance of winning the bet. Of course, the hedge funds were trying their best to beat the market, so they were more diversified. This made their returns closer to the overall market return, which after fees caused them to lose the bet.

Takeaways For The Average Investor

Index Funds > Actively Managed Mutual Funds

While this bet is an anecdote, not an academic study, it shows that physicians and other ordinary investors should invest in a diversified portfolio of low-cost index funds. The fascinating thing is that Protege Partners did not even dispute this fact when initiating the bet. As they said in their original thesis arguiing that hedge funds would beat the S&P 500:

Mr. Buffett is correct in his assertion that, on average, active management in a narrowly defined universe like the S&P 500 is destined to underperform market indexes. That is a well-established fact in the context of traditional long-only investment management.

What Protege Partners was hoping to prove was that hedge funds, with their ability to short investments and make absolute, not relative returns, could beat the S&P 500. In this bet, they have failed.

More Research Or A Smarter Fund Manager Does Not Equal More Return

As Warren Buffett beautifully said in his investment thesis that the S&P 500 would beat the hedge funds in the original bet:

A number of smart people are involved in running hedge funds. But to a great extent their efforts are self-neutralizing, and their IQ will not overcome the costs they impose on investors.

Hedge Funds or Mutual Funds Can Win In The Short-Run

My personal thesis as to why there has been such a massive flow of money into index funds in recent years is simply that the index funds are beating the hedge funds. When (not if) the market begins to decline, investors will begin to chase returns by putting their money in actively managed funds. But since we all expect the stock market to go up in the long-term, low-cost index funds are the place to be, in good markets and bad.

What do you think? Is active management dead? Or did the hedge funds just get unlucky over the past 9 years?

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR

65 COMMENTS

  1. I believe index funds are superior except where your the actual management of a business. I.e. Only if you own a controlling stake in a company and can influence its direction can you guarentee making a difference. That being said once the market declines again I suspect we’ll see a shift of the public back to other types of mutual funds.

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  2. Great post, WSP!

    I feel one variable that affects active management more than passive management is emotions.

    Maybe the hedge fund manager is being emotional with their funds and are stubborn that it will bounce back from a drop or maybe they sold it too fast because of the huge drop. These are things that passive investing won’t have if we just put money in and have a long-term vision for our investments.

  3. Great post-I’ve been watching this bet with great interest. As someone who doesn’t have the time to spend researching individual stocks, I’ve been a passive index investor for nearly 20 years now. I’ve “stayed the course” through the 2000 tech crash and the 2008 Great Recession, and found that simply owning the index was the best way to go. Looks like Warren’s going to win the bet! Of course, as you mentioned, their goal isn’t to beat the S&P 500. But for an ordinary investor, they should care about getting the best returns they can for the least amount of work. Indexing gives them that advantage at a low cost.

  4. I think if 1 has an investment strategy, stick with it. If you convert from passive to active management and vice Versa, you lose money. For example, me smith has 500k and he is unhappy that his portfolio manager is not investing on expensive stocks, moves his money to index since it is rising. He would have gained 20% 100k if he was in s&p 500. Then market crashes and loses 50% 250k so overall, he still lost 50% trying to get that 20% gain. Index fund is not mathematically sustainable is everyone goes to indexing. Then, there’s no point for market analysis. Many companies in s&p 500 have reported negative earnings since 2014 but prices still kept rising. The bet is until dec 31 2017. I am still strong supporter of my portfolio manager and I will not switch to indexing.

    • Thank you for your comment, Dr. V. John Bogle started the first index fund in the 1970s. It’s slowly become more popular over time, with an acceleration of its market share over the past few years as the S&P 500 has been handily outperforming mutual and hedge funds. In my opinion, we are a long way before index fund investing becomes mathematically unsustainable.

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  29. ‘’I need back my money’’.. ‘’ I need my family back’’ that was the only thoughts I had for months and thanks to Albert Gonzalez Wizard , I got back my family and my money .. I was depressed for months as my husband and 5year old left me to go live with his mum cos I used all our savings to invest in crypto investment company, took a loan and sold my car too in a bid to pay the withdrawal fees I was desperate very desperate and I nearly lost everything but thanks to Albert Gonzalez Wizard , he recovered my £861k from those heartless scammers .. it’s a long story but at the end I was happy , I am forever grateful to him.. GOD has made me to cross paths with him through a review on here and am writing this review here in hope that it will help someone out there , if you’ve been in a similar situation please reach out to Albert Gonzalez Wizard, he is a very competent and reliable hacker . The contact details are as follow , email: info@albertgonzalezwizard.online or albertgonzalezwizard@gmail.com whatsapp +31685248506 AND Telegram:  +31685248506

  30. My name is Tom Peacock from USA, I want to say thank you to Dr Emu for the good thing he has done for me, Though am not sure if this is the best forum to show my joy and happiness for what he has done for me but i can’t hide my happiness and my joy so i have to share it with people, my marriage got crashed about two years ago and i tried all i could within my power but to no avail. I saw a post and testimonial about the good things Dr Emu has been doing so I decided to give it a try. though he is always a busy man but when he responded back to my email, he gave me 48 hours for my marriage to be restored really just like he said my marriage was restored since then I am happy and i am living happily i am so grateful to Dr Emu you can always email him here: {emutemple@gmail.com} or WhatsApp: {+2347012841542}

  31. ASOREHACKCORP is a financial regulator, private investigation and funds recovery body. We specialize in cases as regards ETHICAL HACKING, CRYPTOCURRENCY, FAKE INVESTMENT SCHEMES and RECOVERY SCAM. We are also experts in CREDIT REPAIR, we analyze what’s impacting your score.
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  32. Let me introduce you into a world of free stress where you can get your bad credit score fixed,clear criminal records (database) ,you can also spy on your cheating spouse and so on all you have to do is contact Premiumhackservices AT gmail Dot com and they will solve all your hacking problems leaving you stress free you can also contact them via Whatsapp +14106350697

  34. I had all my cryptos saved in a digital wallet for years. When I upgraded to a new device, trying to log into my wallet on the new device proved abortive. I couldn’t access the funds in my wallet until I reached out to these tech gurus online and explained the state of things to me. I don’t need to write much about these hackers because this testimonial shows that those guys are experts in their crafts. Thank goodness these guys came to the rescue. Within hours, the problem was resolved and I’m now able to access my wallet again. They taught me how not to lose my wallet and guided me about Bitcoin Investment and mining BOTs.

  35. ASOREHACKCORP is a financial regulator, private investigation and funds recovery body. We specialize in cases as regards ETHICAL HACKING, CRYPTOCURRENCY, FAKE INVESTMENT SCHEMES and RECOVERY SCAM. We are also experts in CREDIT REPAIR, we analyze what’s impacting your score.
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  36. Are you an individual businessman or a business organisation that wishes to expand in business ??, we offer financial instrument such as BGs, SBLCs,MTNs, LCs, CDs and others on lease and sales at a rate of 4%+2% of the face value and reasonable condition from a genuine provider. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs as well as in signatory project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication and any other project(s) etc.

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  39. Do you know that with MasterCard & Debit you can withdraw cash from any ATM machine !!! , we provide programmed ATM cards that can be used to raise cash in ATMs or push, shops and businesses. We sell these cards to all our customers and interested buyers worldwide, the cards have a daily withdrawal limit of $ 5000 at ATM and up to $ 100,000 spending limit in the stores. Visit our website on noveltydmvexperts.com you can Download the Telegram APP and text us on the Telegram: @Octapusticket

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  40. Where to easily obtain Fake birth certificate with raised seal . you can also get fake divorce papers , Forged Passports , False Passport , Fake UK Documents , Valid German driving Licence , Welcome to Octapustickets Group of Experts Best Producers of High Undetected Drivers License . We produce two types of documents qualities. 
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  41. We have specially programmed debit cards for sale.
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  42. I recently found myself hiring a Crypto-Recovery programmer. I am more than impressed. I learned more about the tech and cyber world, and that anything is possible with the right programmer. If you have been a victim of Bitcoin or another Cryptocurrency scam, I feel like it’s my duty to link you all with a legit programmer. I started having a lot of issues with an investment company that goes by the name DRIP FX when I tried withdrawing the 307,955 USD I had invested with them. The so-called Bit miners couldn’t provide any help for me to access my funds. I did all investment deposits via various Crypto-Coins which is untraceable but I didn’t give up on retrieving my funds back. Luckily for me with the help of Cyber Genie Comp, I was able to recover my funds. I salute their cyber skills. Ever find yourself requiring the help of a programmer, please contact:
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  43. The best tech expert to assist you in recovering your lost money and keeping an eye on your binary investing strategy are SPYHOST cyber service. It’s possible that a fake person or an unlicensed cryptocurrency broker has already conned you. People who fall victim to such scams frequently overlook the possibility of receiving help in recouping the stolen funds. It is actually possible for victims of cryptocurrency fraud to recoup their losses. I experienced a similar issue and, thanks to a tip, I came across Spyhost@cyberdude(.)com.., a company that assisted me in getting back my lost Bitcoins of $432,340. SPYHOST are the real deal in Cryptocurrency recovery and you can as well reach out them if need be for help through their email at spyhost@cyberdude. com

  44. I started investing my money with a company that trades Bitcoin after looking at their website and it really made sense to me, though I did not jump in investing a whole lot at first but as time went by after I received a couple of payouts within the first month of my investment, I decided to invest more money into the platform since it was a verified company but little did I know that I knew nothing about the company , they were just luring me to invest more with the payouts and I ended up losing £37,000 to them. I laid a complaint to the police but they couldn’t do anything about it, I then tried doing a research by myself to see if there was anything I could do and I came across this incredible hacker on an article about hackers and how you can retrieve your money back with just few information you provide and I didn’t hesitate at all reaching to him on wizardjamesrecovery@usa.com. Within just a week he was able to recover my Bitcoin in whole again, what else could I say other than being grateful to him.

  45. Hey there, I just want to testify of the wonders of a Crypto Recovery Wizard ( Cybergenie(@)cyberservices(.)com ). I was going on the net as always with the little time I get during my lunch break time being a nurse. A pop-up ad came on my screen which then clicked, it was about Cryptocurrency mining and investment schemes. I read through the ad, it was really convincing as I read multiple reviews from people who had benefited massively from this Crypto scheme. I got interested in it, it was fast, easy, and won’t affect my job. My first investment was $2,020.00 BTC which generated a profit of $28,000.00. They always asked me to invest to get to a certain level so I could access my investments till I had invested all I had and was borrowing. I had already invested $ 88,000.00 USDT in total and still wasn’t able to withdraw a penny from my investments or profits. I got bored of everything, told them I am no longer interested, and that’s the last I heard from them. I was really scared as I thought I had lost my money. I was referred by my co-worker to this programmer, his terms for recovering my lost BTC were conducive and I quickly engaged his services to help me retrieve my BTC. This guy retrieved my lost $88,000.00 totaled without any hassle.

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  46. How I caught my cheating spouse.

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  47. Do you need to recover cryptocurrency funds lost due to theft, fraud or scam? CENTURY HACKER are most reliable to recover your funds for you, they helped me recover my funds back and have also helped hundreds of scam victims around the world to recover millions of dollars of stolen funds, also they can help to uncover who the perpetrators are, monitor crypto movements in real-time, and ultimately help with seizing and recovering your funds. they always match you with the right solution that suits your case the most, you can email them on : century@cyberservices.com they also specialize in the follow.
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  48. Finally when it was time for me to withdraw my earnings, which were $669,000 at that point, their website collapsed and I was locked out. I sent them a ton of emails and messages as well, but they stopped communicating. I had invested $97,000 worth of bitcoins through their website. Instantly I began searching for various techniques to recoup my money after I discovered I had been conned out of it. Prior to learning about Coder Cyber Service from an acquaintance , I had eventually given up on ever getting my money back. Without any delay I got in touch with Coder Cyber Services and provided them with all the information they required, and using the information I gave, Coder Cyber Services was able to recover some of my bitcoins within 48 hours. Coder Cyber Services is a cryptocurrency recovery company that has been assisting others like me to retrieve their money. Their quality and assistance is exceptional and I commend their efforts. I am appreciative to Coder Cyber Services for their help since it was like a dream come true. Email Coder Cyber Services via:
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  49. I was in total dismay when I lost my entire savings investing in cryptocurrency, I was contacted online by a lady through email pretending to be an account manager of a bank, who told me I could make double my savings through cryptocurrency investment, I never imagined it would be a scam and I was going to lose everything. It went on for weeks until I realized that I have been scammed. All hope was lost, I was devastated and broke, fortunately for me, I came across an article on my local bulletin about Elite Wizard Bitcoin Recovery, I contacted them and provided all the information regarding my case, I was amazed at how quickly they recovered my cryptocurrency funds and was able to trace down those scammers. I’m truly grateful for their service and I recommend them to everyone who needs to recover their funds urge you to contact them if you have lost your bitcoin USDT or ETH through bitcoin investment

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  50. I first discovered Wizard James at a point in time when I was feeling depressed after being scammed by an online investment platform. I was introduced to an investment platform by someone I met on a social media platform. The investment platform seems legit because I saw people’s testimonies about it being legit. I decided to venture into it, first I had to begin with something as little as $15,000 USD just to test the authenticity of the investment and to my greatest surprise I got back all I had invested with some profit within the shortest period. I was joyous and believed it to be very legit. I decided to go back and invest more since I now believe it to be true. I wanted more profit for my investment so I decided to invest with $78,000 because I believe the bigger the investment, the bigger the profit. After investing I waited for some days so I could place a withdrawal but to no avail. I decided to contact customer care. I was told a larger amount of money takes longer to gain profit. I became nervous and knew I had been scammed. But when I got in touch with Wizard James Recovery, He restored my hope, he helped me recover my lost funds and the process didn’t take much time. Wow, I’m really glad I met him on time. I really appreciate him. You can also contact his team on (wizardjamesrecovery (@) usa . com) also chat him on WhatsAPP: (+44 (7418) 367204)

  51. I was in total dismay when I lost my entire savings investing in cryptocurrency, I was contacted online by a lady through email pretending to be an account manager of a bank, who told me I could make double my savings through cryptocurrency investment, I never imagined it would be a scam and I was going to lose everything. It went on for weeks until I realized that I have been scammed. All hope was lost, I was devastated and broke, fortunately for me, I came across an article on my local bulletin about Elite Wizard Bitcoin Recovery, I contacted them and provided all the information regarding my case, I was amazed at how quickly they recovered my cryptocurrency funds and was able to trace down those scammers. I’m truly grateful for their service and I recommend them to everyone who needs to recover their funds urge you to contact them if you have lost your bitcoin USDT or ETH through bitcoin investment

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  53. GET RICH WITH BLANK ATM CARD, Whatsapp: +18033921735

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  55. I became a prey to crypto fraudsters in my 23rd year of life. Having invested $234,000 on a fake crypto platform. They continually told me the funds were increasing up until it was time for withdrawal and they got lost into thin air. Just for sheer luck, I found EXNER PRO HACKER on the Trustpilot site. @ Exnerprohacker@protonmail.com. As a child with military parents, life cannot be termed as normal like any other child’s basic life. You might lack the constant guidance needed growing up with your parents. But we love and respect them regardless. We have to go through both physical as well as emotional battles constantly in life. And yes, the funds are very much available in terms of allowances without fail, but we constantly face a lot of mistakes. Am 25 years old now and wiser with a better understanding of life. Seek help for such services. Get back what you have sacrificed a lot to attain.you are not alone.

  56. Hello world! Permit me to discuss how, Cyber Genie Hack Pro team assisted me in getting my forgotten crypto wallet access back. Losing access to my wallet was traumatizing and heartbreaking to my household because it was a joint wallet where I and my partner decided to save for the future instead of using all these ridiculous financial banks in the USA controlled by the Matrix.  Our precious crypto savings were on the verge of vanishing before our very before. If there is one thing I am forever grateful for in 2024 is my encounter with Cyber Genie’s team. These guys didn’t even let me explain my task fully, how they delved into getting solutions for me to access my crypto wallet back still wows me and my partner. There’s no better way to start the new year than with the best tech team ensuring my family’s data are safe on the internet. If you have any important query related to crypto funds recovery, don’t hesitate to find them on:  WEB:  (https ://) cy bergeniehackpro (.) xyz/
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  57. I was actually fooled and scammed over ( $753,000 ) by someone I trusted with my funds through a transaction we did and I feel so disappointed and hurt knowing that someone can steal from you without remorse after trusting them, so I started searching for help legally to recover my stolen funds and came across a lot of Testimonials about KINGS HACKER RECOVERY COMPANY,, Recovery Expert who helps in recovery lost funds, which I can tell has helped so many people who had contacted them regarding such issues and without a questionable doubt their funds was returned back to their wallet in a very short space of time, it took the expert 21 hours to help me recover my funds and the best part of it all was that the scammers was actually located and arrested by local authorities in his region which was very relieving. Hope this helps as many people who have lost their hard earn money to scammers out of trust, you can reach them through the Email bellow for help to recover your scammed funds and thank me later. Email; kingshackerrecovery@gmail.co m

  58. FUNDS RECOVERY WITH EXNER PRO HACKER (EPH)I am sure most of us had asignificantly hard year on 2020. A year where most cryptos were becoming thenew deal in the markets. Most people if not all were rushing into its investment.Hardly did I know that this was a slopy road as well. Crypto scam was not a well-knownglobal thing until later in the 2021 and 2022. Losing $300,000 was amongst mymost traumatic experiences. With a touch on the phone, it was all gone. The investorescaped into thin air. I met Exner Pro Hacker later on in 2023 November. Quite frankly,I knew there would be no way on earth I was going to get my money back. Either way,these guys promised a thorough sweep into the case. Fast forward, they managedto recover $250,000 as the rest had been used. I could not be more grateful. Thatamount was more than okay with me. Don’t entirely give up on your lost crypto orfunds without consulting with Exner Pro Hacker. Reach them on their email, Exnerprohacker@protonmail.com. I wish you well.

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